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Table 2 List of Model’s Transition Probabilities and Respective Conceptual Interpretations and Sources. Each transition probability represents the probability that a child in a given nutritional state moves to another within one month

From: A mathematical model to estimate the incidence of child wasting in Yemen

Nutrition state transition Interpretation Transition probability Source data/notes
From Healthy state    
\({Healthy\ to\ Healthy\ (p}_{HH})\) Remains healthy 1–\({p}_{HM} - 0.000750\)
\({Healthy\ to\ Moderately\ Wasted\ (p}_{HM})\) Incidence of Moderate Wasting Unknown To be estimated
\({Healthy\ to\ Severely\ Wasted\ (p}_{HS}\)) Develops severe wasting from healthy 0 Model assumption 2
\({Healthy\ to\ Severly\ Wasted\ with\ complications\ (p}_{HC})\) Develops severe wasting w/ complication from healthy 0
\({Healthy\ to\ Deceased\ (p}_{HD})\) General Under-five Mortality Rate 0.000750 2019 Lahj SMART Survey
From Severely Wasted state    
\({Severely Wasted to Healthy (p}_{SH})\) Severe Wasting Spontaneous Recovery 0 Model assumption 4
\({Severely\ Wasted\ to\ Moderately\ Wasted\ (p}_{SM})\) Untreated severe wasting improves to moderate wasting 0.0914 Single time point follow-up of severely wasted children – India (Sachdev et al.) [17]
\({Severely\ Wasted\ to\ Severely\ Wasted\ (p}_{SS})\) Severe wasting remains severe wasting 1−\({p}_{S{T}_{S}}-0.0724\)
\({Severly\ Wasted\ to\ Severely\ Wasted\ with\ complications\ (p}_{SC})\) Untreated severe wasting develops medical complication 0.01026 Nutrition Cluster OTP/TFC Data
\({Severely\ Wasted\ to\ {{\text{Treatm}}{\text{ent}}}_{S}\ (p}_{S{T}_{S}})\) Admitted to OTP [0.200,0.678] Nutrition Cluster OTP Data
\({Severely\ Wasted\ to\ Deceased\ (p}_{SD})\) Untreated Severe Wasting Case Fatality 0.00872 Hazard ratios from pooled analysis (Olofin et al.) [16]
From Moderately Wasted State    
\({Moderately\ Wasted\ to\ Healthy\ (p}_{MH})\) Moderate Wasting Spontaneous Recovery 0.07814 Randomized controlled trial—Burkina Faso (Nikièma et al.) [18]
\({Moderately\ Wasted\ to\ Severely\ Wasted\ (p}_{MS})\) Untreated moderate wasting progresses to severe wasting (severe wasting incidence) Unknown To be estimated
\({Moderately\ Wasted\ to\ Moderately\ Wasted\ (p}_{MM})\) Moderate wasting remains moderate wasting 1−\({p}_{MS}\)\({p}_{M{T}_{m}}\)\(0.0807\)
\({Moderately\ Wasted\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ (p}_{M{T}_{m}})\) Admitted to TSFP [0.0529,0.176] Nutrition Cluster TSFP Data
\({Moderately\ Wasted\ to\ Deceased\ (p}_{MD})\) Untreated Moderate Wasting Case Fatality 0.00260 Hazard ratios from pooled analysis (Olofin et al.) [16]
From Severely Wasted with complications state    
\({Severely\ Wasted\ with\ complications\ to\ Severely\ Wasted\ with\ complications\ (p}_{CC})\) Severely wasted w/ complications remains severely wasted w/ complications 1−\({p}_{C{T}_{C}}-\)0.00260
\({Severely\ Wasted\ with\ complications\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\ (p}_{C{T}_{C}})\) Admitted to TFC [0.0,0.229] Nutrition Cluster TFC Data
\({Severely\ Wasted\ with\ complications\ to\ Deceased\ (p}_{CD})\) Severely Wasted w/ complications Untreated Case Fatality 0.00260 Hazard ratios from pooled analysis (Olofin et al.) [16]
From \({\text{Treatment}}_{S}\) State    
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ to\ Healthy\ (p}_{{T}_{S}H})\) \(\text{Cured at OTP}\) 0.307 Nutrition Cluster OTP Data
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ to\ Severely\ Wasted\ (p}_{{T}_{S}S})\) Defaults from OTP 0.0262 Nutrition Cluster OTP Data
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ (p}_{{T}_{s}{T}_{m}})\) \(\text{Referred from OTP to TSFP}\) 0.00503 Nutrition Cluster OTP Data
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ (p}_{{T}_{s}{T}_{S}})\) Remains in OTP 0.657 Nutrition Cluster OTP Data
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\ (p}_{{T}_{s}{T}_{C}})\) Referred from OTP to TFC 0.004204 Nutrition Cluster OTP Data
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ to\ Deceased\ (p}_{{T}_{S}D})\) In-treatment (OTP) case fatality 0.000156 Nutrition Cluster OTP Data
From \({\text{Treatment}}_{M}\) State    
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ to\ Healthy\ (p}_{{T}_{m}H})\) Cured at TSFP 0.103 Nutrition Cluster TSFP Data
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ to\ Moderately\ Wasted\ (p}_{{T}_{m}M})\) Default from TSFP 0.00442 Nutrition Cluster TSFP Data
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ (p}_{{T}_{m}{T}_{m}})\) Remains in TSFP 0.892 Nutrition Cluster TSFP Data
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ (p}_{{T}_{m}{T}_{S}})\) Referred to OTP from TSFP 0.000918 Nutrition Cluster TSFP Data
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ to\ Deceased\ (p}_{{T}_{m}D})\) In-treatment (TSFP) case fatality 0 Nutrition Cluster TSFP Data
From \({\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\) State    
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\ to\ Healthy\ (p}_{{T}_{C}H})\) Cured at TFC 0.792 Nutrition Cluster TFC Data
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ (p}_{{T}_{C}{T}_{m}})\) Referred from TFC to TSFP 0.0492 Nutrition Cluster TFC Data
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ (p}_{{T}_{C}{T}_{S}})\) Referred from TFC to OTP 0.158 Nutrition Cluster TFC Data
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\ (p}_{{T}_{C}{T}_{C}})\) Remains in TFC 0 Nutrition Cluster TFC Data
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\ to\ Deceased\ (p}_{{T}_{c}D})\) In-treatment (TFC) case fatality 0 Nutrition Cluster TFC Data
From Deceased state    
\({Deceased\ to\ Deceased\ (p}_{DD})\) Deceased state is absorbing 1 Model assumption 6