From: A mathematical model to estimate the incidence of child wasting in Yemen
Nutrition state transition | Interpretation | Transition probability | Source data/notes |
---|---|---|---|
From Healthy state | |||
\({Healthy\ to\ Healthy\ (p}_{HH})\) | Remains healthy | 1–\({p}_{HM} - 0.000750\) | – |
\({Healthy\ to\ Moderately\ Wasted\ (p}_{HM})\) | Incidence of Moderate Wasting | Unknown | To be estimated |
\({Healthy\ to\ Severely\ Wasted\ (p}_{HS}\)) | Develops severe wasting from healthy | 0 | Model assumption 2 |
\({Healthy\ to\ Severly\ Wasted\ with\ complications\ (p}_{HC})\) | Develops severe wasting w/ complication from healthy | 0 | – |
\({Healthy\ to\ Deceased\ (p}_{HD})\) | General Under-five Mortality Rate | 0.000750 | 2019 Lahj SMART Survey |
From Severely Wasted state | |||
\({Severely Wasted to Healthy (p}_{SH})\) | Severe Wasting Spontaneous Recovery | 0 | Model assumption 4 |
\({Severely\ Wasted\ to\ Moderately\ Wasted\ (p}_{SM})\) | Untreated severe wasting improves to moderate wasting | 0.0914 | Single time point follow-up of severely wasted children – India (Sachdev et al.) [17] |
\({Severely\ Wasted\ to\ Severely\ Wasted\ (p}_{SS})\) | Severe wasting remains severe wasting | 1−\({p}_{S{T}_{S}}-0.0724\) | – |
\({Severly\ Wasted\ to\ Severely\ Wasted\ with\ complications\ (p}_{SC})\) | Untreated severe wasting develops medical complication | 0.01026 | Nutrition Cluster OTP/TFC Data |
\({Severely\ Wasted\ to\ {{\text{Treatm}}{\text{ent}}}_{S}\ (p}_{S{T}_{S}})\) | Admitted to OTP | [0.200,0.678] | Nutrition Cluster OTP Data |
\({Severely\ Wasted\ to\ Deceased\ (p}_{SD})\) | Untreated Severe Wasting Case Fatality | 0.00872 | Hazard ratios from pooled analysis (Olofin et al.) [16] |
From Moderately Wasted State | |||
\({Moderately\ Wasted\ to\ Healthy\ (p}_{MH})\) | Moderate Wasting Spontaneous Recovery | 0.07814 | Randomized controlled trial—Burkina Faso (Nikièma et al.) [18] |
\({Moderately\ Wasted\ to\ Severely\ Wasted\ (p}_{MS})\) | Untreated moderate wasting progresses to severe wasting (severe wasting incidence) | Unknown | To be estimated |
\({Moderately\ Wasted\ to\ Moderately\ Wasted\ (p}_{MM})\) | Moderate wasting remains moderate wasting | 1−\({p}_{MS}\)−\({p}_{M{T}_{m}}\)−\(0.0807\) | – |
\({Moderately\ Wasted\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ (p}_{M{T}_{m}})\) | Admitted to TSFP | [0.0529,0.176] | Nutrition Cluster TSFP Data |
\({Moderately\ Wasted\ to\ Deceased\ (p}_{MD})\) | Untreated Moderate Wasting Case Fatality | 0.00260 | Hazard ratios from pooled analysis (Olofin et al.) [16] |
From Severely Wasted with complications state | |||
\({Severely\ Wasted\ with\ complications\ to\ Severely\ Wasted\ with\ complications\ (p}_{CC})\) | Severely wasted w/ complications remains severely wasted w/ complications | 1−\({p}_{C{T}_{C}}-\)0.00260 | – |
\({Severely\ Wasted\ with\ complications\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\ (p}_{C{T}_{C}})\) | Admitted to TFC | [0.0,0.229] | Nutrition Cluster TFC Data |
\({Severely\ Wasted\ with\ complications\ to\ Deceased\ (p}_{CD})\) | Severely Wasted w/ complications Untreated Case Fatality | 0.00260 | Hazard ratios from pooled analysis (Olofin et al.) [16] |
From \({\text{Treatment}}_{S}\) State | |||
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ to\ Healthy\ (p}_{{T}_{S}H})\) | \(\text{Cured at OTP}\) | 0.307 | Nutrition Cluster OTP Data |
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ to\ Severely\ Wasted\ (p}_{{T}_{S}S})\) | Defaults from OTP | 0.0262 | Nutrition Cluster OTP Data |
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ (p}_{{T}_{s}{T}_{m}})\) | \(\text{Referred from OTP to TSFP}\) | 0.00503 | Nutrition Cluster OTP Data |
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ (p}_{{T}_{s}{T}_{S}})\) | Remains in OTP | 0.657 | Nutrition Cluster OTP Data |
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\ (p}_{{T}_{s}{T}_{C}})\) | Referred from OTP to TFC | 0.004204 | Nutrition Cluster OTP Data |
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ to\ Deceased\ (p}_{{T}_{S}D})\) | In-treatment (OTP) case fatality | 0.000156 | Nutrition Cluster OTP Data |
From \({\text{Treatment}}_{M}\) State | |||
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ to\ Healthy\ (p}_{{T}_{m}H})\) | Cured at TSFP | 0.103 | Nutrition Cluster TSFP Data |
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ to\ Moderately\ Wasted\ (p}_{{T}_{m}M})\) | Default from TSFP | 0.00442 | Nutrition Cluster TSFP Data |
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ (p}_{{T}_{m}{T}_{m}})\) | Remains in TSFP | 0.892 | Nutrition Cluster TSFP Data |
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ (p}_{{T}_{m}{T}_{S}})\) | Referred to OTP from TSFP | 0.000918 | Nutrition Cluster TSFP Data |
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ to\ Deceased\ (p}_{{T}_{m}D})\) | In-treatment (TSFP) case fatality | 0 | Nutrition Cluster TSFP Data |
From \({\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\) State | |||
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\ to\ Healthy\ (p}_{{T}_{C}H})\) | Cured at TFC | 0.792 | Nutrition Cluster TFC Data |
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{M}\ (p}_{{T}_{C}{T}_{m}})\) | Referred from TFC to TSFP | 0.0492 | Nutrition Cluster TFC Data |
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{S}\ (p}_{{T}_{C}{T}_{S}})\) | Referred from TFC to OTP | 0.158 | Nutrition Cluster TFC Data |
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\ to\ {\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\ (p}_{{T}_{C}{T}_{C}})\) | Remains in TFC | 0 | Nutrition Cluster TFC Data |
\({{\text{Treatment}}_{SC}\ to\ Deceased\ (p}_{{T}_{c}D})\) | In-treatment (TFC) case fatality | 0 | Nutrition Cluster TFC Data |
From Deceased state | |||
\({Deceased\ to\ Deceased\ (p}_{DD})\) | Deceased state is absorbing | 1 | Model assumption 6 |