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Table 4 Total casualties for all scenarios

From: Nuclear war between Israel and Iran: lethality beyond the pale

Scenario/City Weapon yield (kt) Estimated population* Total* fatalities Total* injuries
Israeli Cities     
- Beer Sheva 15 208,770 105,510 35,090
- Haifa 15 323,890 69,420 50,400
- Tel Aviv (double strike) Dual 15 1,372,440 229,330 147,340
Iranian Single-Strike cities     
- Arak 250 424,270 387,600 32,240
- Ardabil 500 456,500 428,120 22,240
- Hamadan 250 386,130 362,400 35,250
- Karaj 15 1,125,360 157,960 130,960
- Karaj 50 1,125,360 325,860 199,270
- Karaj 100 1,125,360 508,030 219,070
- Karaj 250 1,125,360 744,100 210,460
- Karaj 500 1,125,360 891,190 164,770
- Kerman 500 560,320 510,850 36,110
- Qazvin 100 460,250 423,200 38,190
- Rasht 500 503,140 482,940 46,450
- Reza Iyeh 500 582,820 545,450 44,170
- Yazd 250 435,120 326,610 48,930
- Zahedan 500 602,530 578,950 23,330
Iranian Multiple-Strike cities Yield/Number of weapons    
- Ahvaz 500 + 250 1,050,530 852,140 74,330
- Bandar Abbas 100 × 3 467,510 438,240 22,160
- Esfahan 500 × 2 1,836,920 1,510,050 199,640
- Kermanshah 250 × 3 751,710 718,480 33,020
- Mashad 500 × 3 2,242,760 2,178,020 59,250
- Shiraz 500 × 2 1,227,820 1,037,170 133,190
- Tabriz 500 × 2 1,264,550 1,220,250 73,760
- Tehran 100 × 5 8,317,080 3,615,350 1,622,360
- Tehran 250 × 5 8,317,080 5,594,200 1,577,220
- Tehran 500 × 5 8,317,080 7,127,800 791,080
  1. *Total casualties plus uninjured do not equal estimated population, as direct blast effects and fallout plumes typically extend beyond the areas of highest population density and may include other communities.