Nuclear war between Israel and Iran: lethality beyond the pale

Table 4 Total casualties for all scenarios

Scenario/City	Weapon yield (kt)	Estimated population*	Total* fatalities	Total* injuries
Israeli Cities
- Beer Sheva	15	208,770	105,510	35,090
- Haifa	15	323,890	69,420	50,400
- Tel Aviv (double strike)	Dual 15	1,372,440	229,330	147,340
Iranian Single-Strike cities
- Arak	250	424,270	387,600	32,240
- Ardabil	500	456,500	428,120	22,240
- Hamadan	250	386,130	362,400	35,250
- Karaj	15	1,125,360	157,960	130,960
- Karaj	50	1,125,360	325,860	199,270
- Karaj	100	1,125,360	508,030	219,070
- Karaj	250	1,125,360	744,100	210,460
- Karaj	500	1,125,360	891,190	164,770
- Kerman	500	560,320	510,850	36,110
- Qazvin	100	460,250	423,200	38,190
- Rasht	500	503,140	482,940	46,450
- Reza Iyeh	500	582,820	545,450	44,170
- Yazd	250	435,120	326,610	48,930
- Zahedan	500	602,530	578,950	23,330
Iranian Multiple-Strike cities	Yield/Number of weapons
- Ahvaz	500 + 250	1,050,530	852,140	74,330
- Bandar Abbas	100 × 3	467,510	438,240	22,160
- Esfahan	500 × 2	1,836,920	1,510,050	199,640
- Kermanshah	250 × 3	751,710	718,480	33,020
- Mashad	500 × 3	2,242,760	2,178,020	59,250
- Shiraz	500 × 2	1,227,820	1,037,170	133,190
- Tabriz	500 × 2	1,264,550	1,220,250	73,760
- Tehran	100 × 5	8,317,080	3,615,350	1,622,360
- Tehran	250 × 5	8,317,080	5,594,200	1,577,220
- Tehran	500 × 5	8,317,080	7,127,800	791,080

*Total casualties plus uninjured do not equal estimated population, as direct blast effects and fallout plumes typically extend beyond the areas of highest population density and may include other communities.

ISSN: 1752-1505